Truss Collapse, Sunak’s Slippery Start

Truss Out

We’d only just begun, and now Liz Truss is gone. In what will go down as ‘did that really happen?’ episode in British politics, she’s gone after less than 50 days. It was one of the more foreseeable events of 2022, and her failure was never a question of if but when. Her arrogance and complete lack of self-reflection set her up for a fall as spectacular as any politician in the last two centuries. John Updike’s ‘Memories of the Ford Administration’ covers a vast era in comparison.

There may be some sympathy for her at a human level. For any normal person, the pressure would’ve been unbearable, and there would surely be a duty of care of friends and colleagues to step up. But with Liz Truss, it’s hard to know if she even went through this reaction. Perhaps she just doesn’t have the capacity for empathy that most of us have, or the ability to feel ‘imposter syndrome’ of any sort. The tone of her departing speech on Downing Street suggests she believes she did nothing wrong, as she adopted a line of ‘never apologise, never explain’. There’s a distinct impression that this is an individual who does not have a surfeit of human kindness.

Trussinomics is dead, for now, and that’s a huge positive. A purely supply-side approach to the economy has been shown to be a disaster. It will be tried again, but the scarring the Tories got means they’ll be reluctant to try anything on a similar scale in the future, if they ever get the opportunity again. The markets have spoken, and they’ve shouted out loudly. The IEA project has been a disaster for mortgage holders. Their spokespeople have no humility and won’t accept any responsibility for the impact of their views, but sensible people can consign their beliefs the bin.

She’s now the pub quiz question that she never wanted to be. The Tories were ruthless in getting rid of her. But lest they get too self-congratulatory about their swift action, they know a similar candidate could be elected by the membership again. Truss may be gone, but the Conservative Party is still a magnet for the lunatic faction. The members have shot themselves in the foot though and may never be allowed to have the decisive view again. If Truss is smart, she’ll resign either before or at the next General Election and be extremely sparing about any public comments she might be tempted to make.

Sunak In

Rishi Sunak, Britain’s third Prime Minister in four months, is undoubtedly a very clever man. Known as a numbers geek, and a Star Wars nerd, Sunak is still very much an unknown quantity when it comes to the electorate. His personal wealth has him famously richer than the newly crowned King Charles III. We know that he celebrates Diwali and that he was seen as a hard-working and decent human being as Chancellor for the Exchequer. But he’s already squandered the high moral ground by sticking with Suella Braverman.

Braverman, should we forget, only resigned/was fired (delete where politically appropriate) last week. She is a signed up supporter of the ERG, which alone puts her on the Headbanger wing of the Tory Party. A Home Secretary should be a solid, somewhat boring figure, who treats the serious information passed to him or her by MI5 with the confidentiality required. If you have a nickname of ‘Leaky Sue’, you should not be anywhere near a job with this level of responsibility. This is the core. As for Braverman’s personality, let’s just say she’s one of the worst of the worst of the Tory Party.

Sunak had chance to do as Starmer has done with Labour in taking on the hard left. Like it or not, he’s got rid of the Corbynites. By contrast, the new PM has shown himself to be in a weak position in having to reappoint Braverman to appease the ERG. Even worse than that, he’s shown his cynicism in the face of his inaugural speech at No 10. Where’s the openness in this grubby little deal? Where’s the accountability in allowing someone back to their job less than a week after resigning/being fired.

Rishi Sunak’s job is damage limitation. While the Labour lead is unlikely to stay at the current level and Sunak may get some sort of ‘honeymoon’, no less an authority than Sir John Curtis has compared the Truss collapse to the mid-90s ERM moment from which John Major never recovered. When the spending cuts or tax increases kick in, the die will be cast. He’ll be hoping for a 1992 result, but at the moment, the polls are predicting a 1997. Unfortunately for Sunak, the Braverman affair can be summed up by the old saw ‘Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss’.