Palestine Protests in the US, Macron’s Marker, Trump’s Dangerous Court Arguments, Conservatives in Crisis
US College Protests
US Elite colleges are currently going through a moment and this moment consists of thousands of protestors demonstrating and occupying in opposition to Israel’s war against the Palestinian people. The unjust war – for that is what it has been since late October/early November 2024 – in the benighted part of the world where conflict seems to have been in progress for millennia has superseded the Russian invasion of Ukraine in global consciousness. The issue of anti-Semitism has come to the fore and it should always be the prime consideration of those opposing Israeli actions. The actions of Hamas were disgusting and cruel and there is no doubt that many if not most of their supporters want to see the destruction of Israel as their central political goal. There should always be respect for Jewish history and a constant memory of the horrors of the Holocaust. However, the reaction of the Netanyahu government has been verging on the genocidal, and this is why it is rightly being called out on campuses across America. The mass reprisal, reckless and targeted killing of civilians is unconscionable. Students have every right to protest and perhaps a duty against one of the most brazen examples of wanton slaughter by a state in recent years.
Europe in Danger
The recent speech by President Macron in the Sorbonne was a timely reminder of the role France wishes to play in the international order, the limitations that contain those ambitions, and the moral authority still resting in one of titans of the European ideal. Macron is right to underline how vulnerable the EU is to Russian expansion and how precarious the status quo is when one factors in the risk of a possible Trump victory in November. The ‘Jupiter Presidency’ has realised the threat that it and the rest of the continent is under should such a venal man as Donald J Trump become President again. These are dangerous times, recognised by British government commitment to increase defence spending and the Polish Foreign Minister proposing that nuclear weapons be stationed in his country. Russia has shown itself to be a rogue nation, content and proud to operate outside the norms of diplomacy and political guardrails. Macron is surely correct to warn of the vulnerabilities that Europe has against the new Tsar in the East. This is an era when fear and loathing vies with rationality and pluralism. It is a time for leaders to stand up and speak truth, and Macron did this at the Sorbonne.
Trump Trials
It’s that guy again. You know, the one who was US President before Joe Biden. This week. he and his lawyers are in two courts, in New York on the criminal charge of falsifying his 2016 election accounts to cover up his affair with Stormy Daniels, and in an another forum in Washington DC, at the Supreme Court. It is the SCOTUS hearing that is raising more alarm. The contention of Trump’s lawyers that he should be granted immunity from all prosecution both as and after being president has aired some frightening arguments. For the US Supreme Court to even ponder on whether a president might authorise the assassination of a political opponent is obscene and should act as a loud fire alarm to any Republicans left who value Constitutionalism over tyranny. The Supreme Court GOP-appointed majority may end up kicking this decision to a lower court and delaying any ruling on the issue until after the election in November. It will be cataclysmic for US democracy should Trump be deemed elected and be granted immunity. The hope for those wishing that Americans will make the right call is that the waverers will look at what sort of man the former guy is, an decide not to vote for him.
Tory Troubles
The Tories are on the ropes. The entropy turning point passed at the height of the Boris Johnson Covid partying allegations and further decay occurred during and after the ‘Lady Jane Grey’ analogous reign of Liz Truss. The attempt to nobble the Labour Party Deputy Leader Angela Rayner for a trivial financial issue looks like backfiring and deservedly so. It would seem ostensibly that Sunak had a good week with his passing of the Rwanda Bill; however, if the recent history of the Tory Party tells us anything, it is that someone, somewhere, will mess up and dominate the headlines, blotting out any mini-wins the hapless Prime Minister may have. It is to his credit that he’s stayed loyal to Ukraine, and been an ‘adult’ after the Truss fiasco. Sunak, though, has been a massive disappointment for those who thought he’d try and accept defeat with honour and bring his party back to the political centre-right. Keir Starmer is ready for the historic day when Labour overcomes a massive majority, and the Conservative Party, for the most part, only have themselves to blame.
London Mayoral Contest, Pence’s Stands, ‘Oppenheimer’ & Polycrisis
If anyone can, Khan can
The London Mayoral Election took an odd and nasty turn this week when the Conservatives put out a US-style attack ad (featuring an actual American voiceover and footage) on the incumbent and favourite Labour’s Sadiq Khan. The hit piece was withdrawn but was a sufficient signifier of the tone the Tories are likely to adopt between now and the election date of 2nd May. The main challenger to Mayor Khan is the Trump-light figure of Susan Hall, a gaffe-prone candidate who seems to be doubling down on negative tactics in the hopes of putting a dent in Khan’s lead.
The Tories have two things going for them. The first is that they’ve changed the voting system from a form of proportional representation to first past the post. The second thing in their favour has been the controversy over the Ultra Low Emission Zones, or ‘ULEZ’, where Hall is seeking to place herself firmly as the motorist’s champion. However she quite simply is neither as popular nor as liked as Khan, and has little of the appeal that Boris Johnson had which saw him twice elected in the position.
Sadiq Khan is a formidable municipal politician of international standing. He may have more relative spending leeway than the next Labour government, and has focused on transport and policing as key issues during his campaign. London needs strong leadership in the post-Brexit age, and in Khan, they have a tried and trusted representative who has demonstrated his leadership qualities. His re-election will help in keeping his city as one of the world’s greatest, a status it truly deserves.
Pence takes a Stand
Trump news from the US now floods the zone with so much shit (as vile neo-fascist Steve Bannon once said he wanted) that the extraordinary is dismissed as quotidian and something has to be utterly, gobsmackingly outrageous for it to break through and remain in the news cycle. So a statement by Mike Pence (someone in the opinion of this writer wrongly reviled by the Democratic Twitteratti) that he could not endorse the man he served as Vice-President to for four years should have been something dominating current affairs shows for weeks. Instead, it has barely been noticed at all.
It is high-time that Pence be given huge credit both for this and for his refusal to bow down to Trump’s threats and intimidation round the certification of Joe Biden’s election in what seems like eons ago. The fact that he believes the last President as someone he is unable to endorse will, as he said himself, ‘come as no surprise’, but is still utterly without precedent. It is no wonder considering Trump’s mob wanted to literally put a noose around his neck on January 6th 2021. Pence will never be a hero figure for liberals but he did the right thing twice on two big occasions that really mattered. There are so many variables in play for the November election, and if Pence has managed to shift the dial even in a miniscule way towards Joe Biden (whom he did not endorse either), then he will have made a material difference to the outcome of the vote and the direction of America for the coming years.
‘Oppenheimer’ and Polycrisis
The Oscar success of ‘Oppenheimer’ is richly deserved. It succeeds as an artistic endeavor at the directorial, acting, screenplay and cinematography level, and while for some it may have been overly long, it is not only undoubtedly a serious movie, but also commercially and critically a hit. Yet there’s another way of viewing Christopher Nolan’s film, and that’s as a story that captures the zeitgeist, reflecting the anxiety of a time of fear and anxiety, as the World experiences a polycrisis, with one piece of disastrous, traumatic news blending into another.
First there was Covid; a frightening modern-day plague, where medieval remedies of quarantine and isolation were enforced – albeit mostly accepted by the people – until a vaccine was discovered and life could return to normal. There was barely time to catch our collective breaths before Putin invaded Ukraine and was soon himself threatening NATO with nuclear annihilation. The 2022 invasion marked the confirmation of Russia as international outlaws unwilling and unable to adhere to a rules-based global order. The killing of Alexey Navalny further emphasized how bleak the short to medium-term future is in Russia. The brutal terrorist Hamas attack and genocidal – according to the U.N – Israeli response have dominated the news for nearly six months now, with Netanyahu’s Israel increasingly and deservedly assuming the role of an pariah state. When you add in growing concerns of the rise of ‘Terminator’ Artificial Intelligence, or at least the lack of definite knowledge about where the A.I. project will end up, you have the polycrisis of 2020 to the present noted by commentators. We will look back on ‘Oppenheimer’ and see it as a signifier of the age we’re living through, the same age we have concerns about making it through alive.
Ukraine Two Years on, Tory Hard Right Blues
Two Years into the ‘Special Operation’
This weekend marks a grim anniversary; it’s now two years since Russian forces invaded Ukraine under the guise of a so-called ‘special operation’. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have died in a war that Putin expected would be wrapped up after a few weeks. The conflict has rightly seen Volodymyr Zelenskyy become a global figure of resistance and his enemy, Vladimir Putin, being presented in stark terms, that of a coldblooded dictator. A new frontline has opened up between Western Democracy and Russian Despotism. This year could be crucial in who wins out and whether Moscow will become the dominant power it so desperately wants to be,
The extent of Putin’s tyranny should surprise nobody. The recent murder of Alexei Navalny has once again exposed both the ruthlessness and the precariousness of the latter-day Tsar. Navalny was an incredibly brave man to return to his fate and has laid down a marker to become a martyr figure in the struggle for Russian freedom. The killing of this man was sadly predictable; this is how Putin deals with his political opponents. The Russians who are happy with Putin will never be won over, but his support may not be as solid as he thinks.
The prospect of a Trump victory in November’s US Presidential Elections has already sent shivers up the spine of Zelenskyy and NATO. Once again it seems that the former President is on Putin’s side and if not an actual direct report to the Kremlin, someone so corrupted as to surely count as an agent of influence under any fair definition. The US judicial system may catch up with him before November but prior to that he is as much a menace as ever. He is already the hand behind military aid to Ukraine being blocked by Congress and will concede everything to Putin should he win against Biden.
As mentioned, the reaction of the EU and NATO has been one of increasing alarm, particularly from those countries bordering Russia. The key issue is Article V and the nuclear umbrella. Trump is already on record as being unwilling to respect collective defence and his recent throwaway remark about encouraging Putin to invade has been taken with utmost seriousness. Congress has voted that a President can’t leave NATO without their agreement, but the former President can do cataclysmic damage without breaking this resolution. It is a time of existential angst for the Atlantic alliance.
And that is why – once again – this is a make or break election in the USA. Biden is old and seemingly tired but is a decent man and, at this late stage, is still the marginal favourite to return to the White House. As stated ad infinitum though, it should not be this close for comfort. The next few months will provide many moments of tension and anxiety. Ukraine deserves better. It deserves to be fully armed and resourced, and Biden, not Trump, is committed to doing that, the one saying ‘Slava Ukraini!’
Tory Hard Right Drift
The Conservative Party is in the Bad Place. Recent remarks by Lee Anderson, Suella Braverman, and Liz Truss have them embroiled in controversy holding them up as a movement increasingly in the grips of right wing ideology. Language that would have been unimaginable pre-Brexit is casually bandied about and/or deliberately aimed to divide and wound. Rishi Sunak is either unable or unwilling to rein in his extremists. The Tories are heading for a massive electoral defeat but how unedifying is their progress in the run up to that. In the words of Theresa May, they’re showing themselves to be the ‘nasty party’.
The hope is that Lee Anderson will hopefully disappear into obscurity fairly quickly. Sadly, he’ll probably become a ubiquitous fixture on right-wing media. His cack-handed attempt to link Sadiq Khan with Islamic extremists meant that even Tory Central Office couldn’t support him anymore and he had to go. But what about Suella Braverman and Liz Truss? The former – surely one of the vilest people in politics – claimed that ‘Islamists are now in charge of Britain’ whereas the latter – definitely one of the most stupid people to ever have been Prime Minister – spoke with January 6th Insurrectionist and neo-fascist Steve Bannon and said she was a victim of the deep state. And the Tory reaction? Crickets.
Which brings us to the legacy Rishi Sunak is choosing to leave for himself. He could’ve taken the high moral ground and shown himself to be a unifier. He had a brief chance when he fired Braverman and appointed Cameron to the Foreign Office. But either through fear or lack of conviction, he chose to triangulate, and to continue to appease the ‘speak your brains’ faction of the Conservative Hard Right. His will be a legacy of failure of leadership and character and the small credit he deserves for replacing the hapless Truss will be forgotten, buried under a Labour landslide.
Israel & Genocide, Europe’s Far Right, Trump Survives Again, Labour in Waiting
Israel Held to Account
The ICJ interim determination on the consideration of whether Israel is committing genocide or not in Gaza is of huge significance. The decision by the international panel of jurists the country must desist from carrying out such acts and must temper the statements and language used by politicians in discussing war aims won’t please everyone. Palestinians will feel it hasn’t gone far enough. But the Court ruling perhaps goes as far as possible as it can at this stage, short of demanding an immediate ceasefire. Among the judges issuing the judgment was an Israeli holocaust survivor; the grouping is chaired by an American. Israeli government bluster will continue, as will the US bi-partisan ‘my country right or wrong’ support but there’s a significant marker now in the short or medium term for Biden to cut Netanyahu loose, and for the recognition that Israel is even more isolated on the international stage than ever before. The country is on notice that it must do everything it can to prevent acts of genocide. There is such a high bar for this definition that the Court has been cautious in its interim ruling. It cannot deny the evidence placed before it. The time for a ceasefire, return of the hostages, and negotiations for a two state solution are long overdue.
Fascism’s Ugly Second Act
The rise of the Far Right in Europe has been one of the more alarming political developments in recent years. The collapse of the traditional soft-left social democrat vote throughout much of the EU has been well documented, and the ascent of populism has left the barbarians both at the gate in France, worryingly close to it in Germany, and beyond it in Italy. While Meloni in Rome has been contrary to expectations when it comes to Ukraine and Russia, fascists are literally on the march again. The Centre is struggling to hold in three of the bigger EU democracies, and in some of the smaller ones too. An unpopular Macron is fearful that Marine Le Pen will be his successor, endangering an already fractious national polity to breaking point. The AfD in Germany continue to surge and the recent undercover report of their plans for mass deportations struck a frightening chord which led to thousands taking to the streets in counter-protest. There’s no magic bullet to defeating the hard right; their rise makes for an unnerving time ahead for those who want to be optimistic about the future.
Toxic Trump Triumphs
Despite Trump being ordered to pay E. Jean Carroll $83 Million in damages, a litany of other civil and criminal charges against him, and statements openly threatening a dictatorship, he still looks like being the odds-on Republican candidate for the November presidential election. There are some encouraging signs as to his lack of popularity among the overall electorate and more moderate GOP voters, but as it stands, there will be a rematch of the 2020 contest, where the destiny of a nation will come down again to four or five battleground states. Nikki Haley is hanging in the race and appears to be getting under her opponent’s skin. But after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, a Trump candidacy is almost inevitable. It is to be hoped that Haley doesn’t bend the knee as per Ron DeSantis and immediately declare for the Former Guy once withdrawing from the contest. To reiterate, it should never have come to this. The democratic and constitutional protections were tested to near destruction in the first Trump presidency; it would be folly to suggest they are robust enough to survive a second. The Electoral College could see a candidate losing by 10 million votes become POTUS; the USA is again rolling the dice on democracy.
Conservatives Face their Waterloo
Rishi Sunak is now twinned with Gordon Brown. The political worldview of the two couldn’t be more different, but there’s now much of a 2009/2010 feeling about this Conservative administration on its last legs, such as Labour were under Brown. There’s been plotting to remove a Prime Minister with only months remaining – check – a feeling of inevitable defeat – check – and an opposition leader that appears fresh compared to his opponent – also check. There’s little left in the Tory tank and it appears that Sunak is happy to have his legacy of one of playing to the populist gallery on immigration. He is besieged by the Right wing of his party, the sniping has been constant since he took over from the hapless Liz Truss. The contrast with Keir Starmer could not be clearer. Labour’s abundance of caution is working, and their commanding lead in the polls right now means that it would take an event of ‘Black Swan’ proportions for Starmer not to be walking into Downing Street in less than a year. The end of Tory rule is nigh, and for millions of Britons, it can’t come too soon.
The Failing of Checks and Balances in the US, and the Legacy of Jacques Delors
A Year Ahead of Living Dangerously; Countdown to November 2024
There’s less than a year to go to the US Presidential Election and the country appears to be sleepwalking into disaster. Despite strong economic indicators for Biden and a legislative first term that holds up well against any of his predecessors, Donald Trump is too close for comfort in his bid to get back into the White House (some polls have Trump comfortably out front, others neck-and-neck, some measurements that put Biden in the lead). Whatever the truth of the position, it augurs a perilous eleven months ahead, For 2023, heading into 2024, it can be argued that the guardrails of American democracy are barely holding and if Trump goes on to win next year, they will have demonstrably shown to have failed/. The institutions that are supposed to uphold the Republic may prove inadequate for the task ahead.
The ‘Courts’ have begun to fight back, Rulings in Colorado and Maine excluding Trump from the local ballots in 2024 for inciting insurrection as are they should be; what nation can be serious about governance that endorses the legitimacy of a seditionist? In any EU nation this question would barely need to be asked. However the US legal system is proving to be a very slow moving machine, one that will probably not complete its civil and criminal actions against ‘the Former Guy’ before November 2024. Add in a partisan US Supreme Court with an inbuilt Republican majority for potentially decades, and you have a system that is nearly broken. Justice is moving too slowly.
Nor have the media been shown to have held Trump to account. There’s been admirable reporting from much of the main stream media but this can only get so far in a hopelessly anything-goes culture where fiction blurs with fact. It’s fine to pontificate – as some liberal columnists have done – in an undergraduate debating manner on the ‘right’ of Trump to run and accordingly for his supporters voices to be heard, yet after the storming of the Capitol, is this not akin to allowing an arsonist access to a box of matches? Those reporters who treat Donald Trump as a just a regular ‘colourful’ politician are, to extend the preceding analogy, are playing with fire.
Ultimately, it may be the political system itself, the Electoral College, which will prove to be the most vulnerable of guardrails. Joe Biden could win the 2024 Election by 10 million votes and still lose overall by failing to carry enough of the rust-belt. It could come down – again – to a few hundred thousand votes across three or four states. Biden should be looking forward to his retirement after a distinguished lifetime of public service; instead, so weak is the political system in the US, he is made to hang on as probably the only Democrat who can beat Trump. If he loses next year, the decision to run again will be seen as a fateful defeat.
Rarely has there been such a sliding doors potential in the coming months. If the vote goes Trump’s way, Ukraine would be sacrificed immediately, NATO would be under siege, and the USA could become an authoritarian country quicker that most cynics imagine. There will be a substantially increased risk of a global trade war with a concomitant recession. The ‘West’ will become an amorphous concept as the right ring in the WU will be emboldened. A second Trump administration will have learnt from the first. If Biden gets four more years, then the Centre holds; all will by no means be good with the World. But it will be a lot, lot, less bad. The hope is that the latter future history comes to be, but we can hear the rumbling of the former as an incoming storm approaching the shore, as we look on into the sea.
Delors Era a Relatively Golden Age
The death of the former European Commission President, Jacques Delors, is a reminder of a bygone age when the international affairs in general and what became the European Union had a more optimistic future ahead on the horizon. His time in charge of the EC from 1985 to 1995 was one of vision and change. His period of office saw the introduction of the Single European Act, the Social Charter, and the European Union itself, integrating trade and services, strengthening employee protection, and changing the constitutional structure of the European institutions (the EEC coming under the ‘European Union’ banner). By 1990/91, the USSR and her satellites had collapsed and the spirit of democracy filled the air. His term at the Commission laid much of the groundwork for the Euro which despite its critics still endures today, Any one of these milestones would’ve been enough for most political epithets. He was a leading figure in making the EU a club that most European countries either want to stay in or join. His service for which we can be grateful was that of an usual mixture, technocrat and visionary.
Sunak Own Goal after Good Play, Good Riddance Henry Kissinger
Tory Re-Set Fails as Sunak Loses his Marbles
This has been a busy month for the Conservative Party in their increasingly doomed attempt to stave off a forthcoming election wipeout. November saw a reshuffle where Sunak finally stood up to his far right Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, and surprised everyone by bringing David Cameron back into Cabinet. But if you thought this would be a new liberal tilt on the Prime Minister’s behalf to bequeath some sort of benign legacy, you’d be wrong. The controversy over his snub to the Greek PM regarding the ‘Elgin Marbles’ shows that Sunak is no longer a serious politician, when he can’t even do the basics.
Braverman had to go. Her statements about Street Sleepers and her bizarre hot take on that the Met – who she oversaw – were somehow pro-Palestinian (during Memorial Weekend to boot), made her position untenable. It was just the latest in a long line of deeply worrying and semi-fascistic speeches and statements that made her the darling of the Tory Right. She may well even become the next Tory leader. The manner of her defenestration suggests – one hopes – that she may not be as popular as she thought she was. Sunak finally did the right thing in firing her. Her departure was late in the day and she was indulged for far too long, but at least she’s gone, though unfortunately, maybe not forgotten.
Braverman’s sacking was utterly overshadowed by the recall of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary. This was a masterstroke in ‘dead-catting’ and for a day or so, made Rishi Sunak look decisive and slightly on the front foot. The Cameron appointment dominated the headlines, not Braverman’s leaving, and as such, it was a PR ju-jitsu move which came totally out of the blue. It appeared to be Sunak giving two fingers to the populists and head-bangers in his party by appointing the archetypal Remainer. However, the gloss shouldn’t distract from Cameron’s record of catastrophic failure, the millstone that will always weigh him down, the Brexit Referendum. There was no ‘Plan B’ with contingencies for a Leave vote.
Cameron may still be an effective communicator but he is still the individual still most associated with Establishment hubris in 2016. His calling of the referendum was always a reckless act; having won the Scottish Independence vote and the 2015 General Election, the former PM ran with what might be described as a ‘gambler’s fallacy’, the belief that he could successfully roll the dice for a third time. He exhibited the worst of Eton overconfidence. Cameron may be received with some bemusement and curiosity when talking to EU Foreign Ministers. In some ways, he is the one who inadvertently started the populist domino effect of the last seven years. He may be still a European at heart, but he bears a lot of the responsibility for the self-inflicted damage from Brexit.
Populism can be an alluring drug, even to the non-believers and those who should know better. Rishi Sunak has picked a needless row over the return or otherwise of the ‘Elgin Marbles’ on display in the British Museum. George Osborne as Chairman of said organization has advocated a possible long-loan arrangement. Somehow, Sunak or his advisors thought it would be a good political wheeze to cancel a meeting with the Greek Prime Minister over the long held and stated Greek belief that the artifacts should be returned for good to Greece. This was not the act of a confident leader; unfortunately, there will be more of this sort of thing in the coming months. Time’s Arrow is not Sunak’s friend as he advances towards his eviction from Downing Street.
Death of a ‘Realist’
Finally, he’s dead. Henry Kissinger, War Criminal in Cambodia, ally of Pinochet in overthrowing Allende in Chile, has died at the age of 100. The thousands of victims of his Machiavellian beliefs didn’t get to live as long. The High Priest of ‘Realism’ in foreign policy, Kissinger made the reality real with his appalling cynicism. He may have walked with Nixon in opening up diplomacy with ‘Red’ China, which for any other diplomat/advisor, would be a defining act. However there is too much of the darkness when it comes to his deeds and influence. Christopher Hitchens knew of what he was speaking when he wrote his justified polemic on the man. The pity is that his enemy got to outlive him and that as Hitch believed, there is no Hell for his this amoralist to burn in. There has been a righteous outpouring of anger and mockery when the news broke, and many of the Democratic Foreign Policy establishment have been equivocal in their assessment, to put it mildly. Tom Lehrer was right when he said that satire was dead after Kissinger received the Nobel Peace Prize. Perhaps it’s best if Henry Kissinger’s is neither mourned nor missed, and his memory fades away into dust, except for the memory of his crimes.
Palestine/Israel in Turmoil, Labour’s By-Elections Wins
God of Carnage Revisits Palestine/Israel
Words can fail us when it comes to seemingly unsolvable situations. We are either drawn to cliché and the oft-used phrases of the past or we are genuinely unable to express our thoughts and feelings in the face of an intractable issue. The longer the stasis or problem continues, the harder it is to respond with new words or novel approaches. Such is the tragedy of Palestine/Israel, which has been a running sore on the global body politic for much of the last 75 years, It is one that never goes away and seems hopeless, and without hope, despair fills the void. We appear to be, as Gerald Manley Hopkins said, ‘pitched past pitch of grief’.
The horrific attack by Hamas is the fuel on the current fire. The indiscriminate killing of hundreds of Israeli citizens on 7th October has sparked the current crisis. It was a brutal strike. Those young people at a concert for peace were the best of their nation, and yet they were struck down in the cruelest and bloodiest of ways. It was the breaking of butterflies upon a wheel. Over 1400 Israeli’s died at the hands of an organization that has been condemned as a terrorist in their nature. The taking of hostages is an outrageous breach of international law. It was a cruel, murderous orgy of violence against Israel. The appearance of the ‘Stop the War’ Left in Europe and the US callously ignoring the October attack has horrified liberal Israelis. .
Palestine, in various guises, has been under occupation since 1948. The Gaza Strip is one of the most crowded pieces of earth on the planet. No less a figure than former US President Jimmy Carter has compared the treatment of Palestinians by Israel as akin to apartheid in pre-Mandela South Africa. The Israeli Defence Forces are currently committing Grozny-style destruction of territory and the targeted or collateral killing of hundreds if not thousands of non-combatants. Their actions in their prosecution of a war against Hamas are not just. The Gaza Strip is one of the most dangerous places in the World right now. Netanyahu should be nowhere near the reins of power. He has poisoned civic society and shown himself in his true colours, a proto-authoritarian with no compassion for Palestinians.
There are too many variables in this equation. There’s a right-wing American Republican Party base are prepared to let Israel do anything they want in the name of self-defence. There’s the witches brew of religious fanaticism in Israel/Palestine itself. Then throw in Iran – a hideous regime that tortures their own citizens – and the malignant presence of Putin looking on from not too far away, and you have what looks like a situation that will never change, one that will always be exacerbated by words, leading to tensions, and the inevitable spark in the tinder box. Add the fact that Israel has nuclear weapons, and then the threat of something a lot darker looms.
To return to cliché, the dust will eventually settle. There should be an immediate ceasefire but there probably won’t. A two-state solution may be years away, but it is the best hope for this benighted region. The US need to compel the Israeli state – through financial and diplomatic pressure – to get back to the negotiating table. All Israeli Settlements need to be dismantled. There needs to be a reversion to the pre-1967 borders. The Gulf States, Jordan, and Egypt need to guarantee Israeli Security, and Hamas must renounce violence or face the consequences. So many pieces need to be aligned that all of this could be dismissed as hopeless naivety. But it’s always good to dream big than not dream at all.
Labour’s Nearly There
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party scored another couple of stonking by-election victories this month. The wins in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth, both gains from the Conservatives, were such massive results that they augur almost too well for Labour’s success at the next General Election. Even the most cautious of Labour frontbenchers will now see Sunak’s impending defeat as not just inevitable but also one that will give the party a majority similar to the massive win achieved by New Labour n 1997. What a turn around this has been since 2019! Full credit must go to Starmer and his team for the discipline of their message and the tone of their delivery. There have been some mistakes along the way, as is inevitable. There’s also the perception of Starmer being quite uncharismatic; he’s turned this to his advantage. His partnership with Rachel Reeves seems rock-solid, dare one say mirroring the Blair-Brown combination that was so effective in opposition in the 1990s? We are at the Berlin Bunker stage of the Conservative administration now. Sunak will be tempted to crank up the populist nonsense between now and the election in an attempt to trap Starmer; Labour’s not falling for it. There will be new Prime Minister in just over 12 months, and he won’t be a Tory.
Poll Worries for Biden, Rupert Murdoch’s Successor, Tory Turmoil since Brexit
An Alarming Outlier
A recent Washington Post-ABC Poll on the potential 2024 US Presidential Election caused considerable alarm, whether it’s an outlier or not. It puts Donald Trump ten points ahead of Joe Biden. While not reflective of a whole slew of polls which put the margin at a much narrower one, this will have shaken any complacency out of those who think next year will be a straightforward weighing of the votes for President Biden. This writer thinks the current occupant of the White House is likely to win against ‘45’ but recent political temperature checks have shown that this is by no means guaranteed. The US Electoral system is so freakish that even a two point lead on Biden’s part AND the winning of the popular vote by millions, could still see him lose in November ’24. That’s why a freak pulse check like this, while not confirming anything, can set the blood pressure racing.
The poll will have been received with wincing in NATO. It took all of the organisation’s resilience to survive a first Trump term. It may not be as lucky second time round. Unfortunately, despite wishful thinking, Putin will probably still be the Russian leader next year. If Trump wins, the democratic NATO countries will have to reckon on the US Government being under hostile control again. Ukraine will suffer terribly if there’s a Trump Mark II; so swift will his concessions to Moscow be, it doesn’t bear thinking about. NATO and Ukraine are not the only ones to be worried. Millions of us recall the angst, depression and powerlessness we felt when the November 2016 result was declared. It would be fair to say the psychological sense of despair would be acute. That’s why the best hope is that Trump is behind bars and ineligible to run for 2024 within the next twelve months.
Murdoch Succession
The news that Lachlan Murdoch is to succeed his nonagenarian father at the helm of News Corporation should not come as much of a surprise. The recent critical and commercial acclaim for ‘Succession’ has made this particularly on-point. Lachlan is as right wing if not even more so than his Dad, and unlike Rupert, has a propensity to sue, with a much thinner skin than the ‘Dirty Digger’. Theirs is a family like F Scott Fitzgerald’s rich, different to you and me. Those expecting a mellowing in the tone of Fox News are in for a disappointment.
The Murdoch influence has been mostly malign. His worldview and behaviour is that of an old school late 19th/early 20th century Press Baron. His British tabloids plumbed depths of prurience unseen since the scandal sheets of Victorian Britain. His politics were – if one were to dignify him with a coherent ideology outside of the enjoyment of power and wealth – of the reactionary sort. He’s always looked to both mold and back winners. He backed Thatcher as she and he were in lock step regarding low taxation, shrinking the government, and a fostering of a ‘greed is good’ culture. He jumped on the Blair bandwagon as he became a global citizen, seeing both that the Tories were on the way out and that nothing in New Labour threatened his hegemony. He made a broke governments and the cultural items of merit his broadsheets celebrated were subsumed by the mass of illiterate philistinism his tabloids promoted. His was a depressing view of humanity which was sadly vindicated commercially.
The Last Few Mad Years
The Laura Kuenssberg BBC programme ‘State of Chaos’ and the recent book by Professor Tim Bale, ‘The Conservative Party after Brexit – Turmoil and Transformation’ , are a good example in comparison and contrast in their treatment of the same material, the almighty shit-show of the past seven years in Tory Britain. The former treated the period in her inimitable breathless style, much like knocking back a swift pint and feeling a sudden buzz of intoxication. Bale, a heavyweight political analyst, was more urbane and considered, and his book may be compared to a slow good glass or two of wine over a meal. The alcohol analogy is apt; from 2016, the Tories have been drunk nearly all the time.
What led to all of this? The Dean Acheson line about Britain losing an Empire but not having found a role is perhaps at the core of the current turmoil. One Nation Tories may take a bow as they were usually to a man and woman, pro-European. People like Ted Heath had seen the destruction wrought in World War II and vowed never again. But this went against the grain of an electorally significant part of the population that had their delusions and prejudices encouraged by a gormless and mendacious popular and mid-market Tory Press. Kuenssberg and Bale offer compelling narratives of the insanity of the last few years. Kuenssberg’s is a brilliant visual reminder of the madness while Bale’s analysis offers a depth of insight into the chaos; both are essential guides to the weirdness of the 2016-2023 period.
Prigozhin’s Death, ULEZ Troubles, Immigration Rhetoric
Death of a Mercenary
Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin died last week as he surely would have expected, in not so mysterious circumstances, i.e. suddenly and not peacefully. The occasion of his death can scarcely be considered a mystery as it can be laid squarely at the feet of one Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin’s ‘March on Moscow’, just over two months ago, sealed his fate. Putin is an international outlaw among global leaders and thinks nothing of extracting lethal revenge on his opponents both domestically and abroad. It is the brazenness that still has the power to shock, if not to surprise. The false promises of safety given by the Russian leader only add to his image as a brutal and vindictive thug in a suit.
There will be few tears shed for Prigozhin, a savage militia warlord, capable of unspeakable cruelty. His passing should not be mourned in the West. But the manner of his demise should be of concern to all who favour an international code of equitable laws rather than the rule of the jungle. Where this leaves his Wagner Group is hard to say. There are still hundreds possibly thousands of angry – if now leaderless – mercenaries who swore allegiance to their gang master. Putin took the calculated risk that he’s prepared to deal with the consequences of this rather than the perception that he wasn’t the Boss. It’s the logic of a Mafia Capo, executing his rivals pour encourager les autres. Russia is a highly dangerous place if you come up against the king, and this latest extra-judicial killing (assignation is almost too dignified a word for the murderous Prigozhin) shows that Putin is still – tragically – a force to be reckoned with.
Khan’s Dilemma
Everyone agrees that there should be clean air and that the vulnerable should be protected from lung diseases and that hundreds of death should be prevented by cleaning up on car pollution, right? Not necessarily, and while Mayor Sadiq Khan’s expanding of the Ultra Low Emission Zone may seem like eminently sensible, the car policy, has, to extend a metraphor, hit heavy traffic and is in danger of gridlock. The zone as it currently operates has not been as contentious an issue, with inner London and the near suburbs well served by public transport (most Londoners known to this commentator don’t own a car or if they do so, barely use it.) However it is the proposed extension to the include all of Greater London that is causing the Labour Party at national level considerable unease.
Mayor Khan is an astute politician and can see how the Tories are attempting – with some success – to use this as a wedge issue. He has put measures in place to alleviate some of the financial hardships involved for those getting new vehicles or improvements made to their current car or van. In effect, it will probably be the former as the measure in the main effects older vehicles. TFL have said that 90% of the cars in London are ULEZ compliant. The issue can arguably be said to impact on the poorer driver. It is a classic example of – again a transport metaphor – of where the policy rubber hits the road. Khan should ideally do the right thing, but what if this is at the expense of leaving Labour short of a majority? Politics is definitely not for the faint-hearted.
Toning Down the Rhetoric on Immigration
The issue of immigration has been a hot-button topic throughout the wealthy North for much of the last 15 years, and a major issue in particular in Great Britain. It was a massive, if not always stated, factor in Brexit and has been a go-to for the Populist Tory right – both politicians and Press – since 2016. The latest incarnation of the Conservative’s failure to manage the scale of ‘small boat’ landings and administration of applications has witnessed a discovery of Legionnaire’s Disease bacteria on the Bibby Stockholm. In the words of a famous right-wing populist, you couldn’t make it up.
If those on the liberal left accept that there can’t be an open door policy – which most do – then the next Labour Government needs to cut down on the demeaning and counter-productive rhetoric of the last few years while recognizing that immigration is a genuine issue of concern for a significant proportion of the electorate, who aren’t all racists. There needs to be a massive allocation of resources to clearing the backlog and a return to the humane treatment of those seeking asylum while their claims are being processed. An honest and respectful debate on regularised immigration is required and a lowering of the temperature when it comes to discussion of this complex topic. Yes, discuss immigration, look to implement constructive solutions, but don’t pander to the organisations like Migration Watch or individuals such as Nigel Farrage. It doesn’t always have to be the poisoned chalice it has become.
Tipping Point for Our Life on Earth, American Bind, Starmer’s Caution
Tipping Point for Civilsiation
The phenomenon of the tipping point has been much commented upon. It applies in science, history, our own lives, and in politics. It seems to have been reached for this small blue dot this summer. According to the head of the UN, we have reached stage of ‘global boiling’. Heatwaves have become the norm for much of the World, and it we’re now in the realms of damage limitation rather than course correction. The most pessimistic forecasts from the last five years seem now to be an accurate prediction as to where the planet is heading. So what’s the point in doing anything? Why don’t we just accept that we’ve blown it and that we should just call off all any attempts ay amelioration? Can we not just live with the fact that our proverbial goose is cooked?
Of course, there is a point to not giving up. We can still mitigate the worst excesses of global warming if the World works together over the coming decades. The scientific consensus is there, opinion polls consistently demonstrate the popularity of taking a strong stance, and those below 30 have it as among their top political priority. Acting together will make a difference to the mirconations threatened with submergence, to the farmers in Africa trying to eke out a living, and to the millions who face drought around the World. The slogan ‘Let’s make things less worse’ isn’t a rallying call for the ages. But it’s the reality we now face. By acting in concert, we have a fighting chance. If we continue to put economic growth as our rallying point to the detriment of environmental solidarity, then we’ve truly lost. The World will go on without us. It’s in our collective hands, but we might throw it all away. We’ve had a good innings but it doesn’t have to be over yet.
A Broken System?
There’s an uncomfortable bind in US politics even at the best of times. The status quo makes it incredibly difficult to set up a third party and the Presidential form of government means it’s almost impossible to envisage a coalition or multi-party government that is the norm for many other democracies. It also means that with Trump and potential Republican candidates in the Trump mould following his departure from the scene, any vote for a third party candidate is not only a wasted vote, but also a highly dangerous one. It’s dangerous because it allows for a possible split in the pluarlity, leading to a far-right win in the US’s remarkably undemocratic Electoral College.
If this seems unfair, it’s because it is. It’s fundamentally unfair as it rarely allows for an incumbent to be successfully challenged by someone in their own party. It virtually guarantees an inherent conservatism, and an unwillingness for Republicans to take on a President like ‘The Former Guy’ as they figure what’s the point if there’s no viable alternative. The bind has been there since the founding of the United States and will be as hard to unravel now as it has been in the preceding 250 years. It’s vital for democracy that Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in November next year, if that indeed is the contest. It’s not good for democracy, however, that a third party candidate can probably never win in a Presidential election.
Ming Vase to Victory
The Labour Party is still on course for a very healthy majority in the next British general election while the Tories still look like heading towards a calamitous defeat. Starmer continues to follow the so-called ‘Ming Vase’ strategy, meaning his party will be incredibly careful over the next two years to give the Conservatives even the slightest political advantage. The vase is carried ever so carefully from one side of the room to the other lest the slightest trip see it drop and smash. It’s an analogy that holds true. Those saying Starmer needs to be braver may not remember 1992 when it looked like a sure thing that Neil Kinnock would become Prime Minister. It’s a defeat scarred into the psyche of those who remember it.
They will be opposing rather than proposing. Starmer faces the invidious position of inheriting a Treasury with very little left in the coffers. His will be a government akin to Clement Atlee’s in 1945, but without the social solidarity there was in post-war Britain to build a New Jerusalem. Yet the society he inherits is profoundly damaged and needs radical reconstruction. Labour thinkers know this and they also realise the appalling division in the United Kingdom reeked by Brexit. It is a broken nation, or series of nations, that need a unifier to seek to repair the damage of the last 13years of Tory maladministration. Starmer’s Britain is the Undiscovered Country. There’s only a handful of people who know what his administration will look like, and they’re too busy carrying the Ming vase across the room to tell you what it is.
Gradualist Papers 