End of the ‘Forever War’

Will what was undoubtedly a scene of chaos at Kabul Airport have a lasting effect on how the Biden Presidency is perceived, or will the pulling out of troops from Afghanistan be welcomed domestically, and eventually praised as the decision of a President finally prepared to grasp the nettle? As with all great historical events, and the ending of the ‘Forever War’ will be seen as such, only time will tell. It has been the longest military engagement undertaken by the USA and their partners and ultimately it’s self-evident that they’ve lost. The Taliban are back in power.

The scenes were and are excruciating to watch. Images of families desperate to get out of the country before the deadline date of August 31st dominate the news, and rightly so. The US did much that was good in that country; democracy was promoted, education and equality for women and girls was encouraged, and billions was spent on initiatives to modernize the state. But these achievements are hollow when contrasted to the thousands fleeing for their lives, or in hiding, all of whom are in despair. The Saigon analogy is in vogue again; a superpower has been humbled, and the leaving has been chaotic.

However, the Biden administration will push back and say that yes, while the images for the first few days are appalling, and even today, an horrific suicide attack took place just outside the airport, the evacuation operation itself markedly improved. The much quoted statistic is that an American plane has left the Kabul runway every 39 minutes. There is the constant threat of IS attacks, but at time of writing, since 13^th August, the US has flown out nearly 90,000 people from Afghanistan, a figure made all the remarkable considering the circumstances during which this air lift is taking place.

So why leave now? There are several reasons. The most straightforward is that the US would have to leave at some stage, and it might as well be now as any other time. Biden was faced with taking a tough decision now, or postponing it indefinitely, until well after he’d left the White House, or this mortal coil. When you pull the metaphorical trigger for a call like this, the repercussions are potentially seismic. Criticise Biden for executing a plan that didn’t consult allies yes, but he made a decision, and in the immortal words of Harry S Truman, the Buck Stops Here.

There’s a reason which may be unstated or acknowledged sotto voce, that the August 31st deadline will be adhered to despite pleas both from allies and Afghanis to extend the pulling out. In just over two weeks, it will have been 20 years since the 9-11 attacks. Biden wants out before this date. He doesn’t want to be the President who extends the Forever War into a 3^rd decade. Historians will decide how to chronicle the past two decades; Biden did not want them considering American involvement in a failed commitment that extended beyond this anniversary.

The move to get the troops home is popular. While Biden’s overall popularity may take a hit, the decision itself is one that most Americans will see as the right one. They believe that after the expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars, much of which seemed to have disappeared down a corruption well, and the loss of 2500 US military, as well as 47,000 Afghan civilians, it is well beyond time to leave. There’s nothing to be gained by remaining in a country where there’s a permanent target on the back of US and allied troops.

Joe Biden knows that time isn’t on his side. However long, to put it bluntly, he may live, the demands of the Presidency may make even running for a second term unlikely. He’s a lot more intelligent than his critics allow for and will be aware infinitely more than his predecessor of how Presidents impact on their nation’s history. For Biden, emotion and intellect are intertwined. He was opposed to the Obama/Pentagon ‘surge’ and saw how Afghanistan had become a quagmire more so than most other senior observers. He will be convinced he made the right decision, and will be less concerned about his legacy than many a politician.

Perhaps the most salient learning point from the passing of time since 2001 is the truth of the maxim to never start a land war in Asia. This was the unwinnable war, and the message won’t be lost on the more astute and thinking members of the US military. Nation building is a much-derided phrase. At its heart, it means leaving something better behind than when you first went there, based on universal values of self-determination and human rights. The US has failed to do this in Afghanistan; it’s time to go home.